What NZ Business Owners Can Expect From The 2026 Election

Every three years it's the same story.

A few months out from an election, the phone calls start, the chitter-chatter kicks off in the office, and suddenly every client conversation has a detour into politics.

I've noticed it ramping up again already, and Phil and I decided it was time to unpack what's actually going on rather than just let it swirl around in the background of every meeting.

So here's my take, and here's my prediction while we're at it: I don't think we're going to see a change of government. I reckon we end up with the same coalition we've currently got, and I think one of the first things they'll do afterwards is start talking seriously about moving to a four-year parliamentary term.

Nothing Either Side Has Announced Is Earth-Shattering
I've had a proper look through what's been announced so far from both sides, and honestly, none of it strikes me as the kind of policy that's going to fundamentally shift the economy.

Take Labour's capital gains tax and their line about wanting debt down to 20% of GDP, that's aspirational, sure, but it's essentially still following the same fiscal path National's on.

Labour have also said they'd scrap the Investment Boost tax rules but bring in a full tax deduction for business assets under $10,000, which is something I've actually been publicly asking for.

But the moment you introduce something new, you've also created uncertainty for anyone about to commit capital, because now they're wondering whether the rules will look different depending on who wins.

On the other side, National's suggestion to lift the cap so more people can buy their first home with a 5% deposit sounds generous, but let's be honest about what that actually does... it's a demand-side lever.

More debt, more demand, and you can guess what that tends to do to property prices.

If a policy is genuinely good for the country, why does it need to wait for an election promise? Just do it.

TOP have got a land tax in their policy mix, and while it's had a bit of a moment in the polling, I don't think any of the smaller parties are going to be the ones setting the agenda here.

Don't Get Sucked Into The Noise
It's really important not to get swept up in the "what about this, what about that" cycle.

It slows you down.

And if there's one thing New Zealand SME owners have going for them over the big corporates, it's the ability to actually make a decision and act on it.

I compare it constantly to what I see happening in the corporate world, decisions that should take five minutes get run through six people, three meetings, and a follow-up meeting to decide on the next meeting.

Meanwhile, small business owners can spot an opportunity, make the call, and have it done within a week. That agility is a genuine competitive advantage, and it disappears the moment you start freezing up waiting to see what happens in November.

Auckland Airport went out and raised a billion dollars last year, in a single day, despite an election being just around the corner. That's a business executing its long-term plan regardless of the political noise.

And the flow-on effect was a whole lot of people in construction and trades who might otherwise have gone under found work because that project kept moving.

Keep An Eye On PREFU
Treasury's Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) is coming out in late September.

This is essentially the "state of the numbers" moment before both parties start rolling out policy. Expect a genuine flurry of announcements from late September through October as parties try to make the most of that window.

Block The Apps
Block the apps, delete them if you have to, and stop feeding the noise oxygen.

We talked about how TOP's polling climbed while they were getting heavy media attention, and dropped again once that attention faded, it's the same pattern you see overseas.

When I was in the US recently, I noticed there was a Trump related headline every single day on the news sites, in a way that just doesn't happen back home with our own politicians to that degree.

Once you notice how manufactured that attention cycle is, it's easier to switch off from it.

If you want to actually get informed, go to the political parties' own policy documents.

Don't rely on media commentary to form your view, most mainstream outlets lean a particular direction, and the way a headline is worded will shape how you interpret it before you've even read the substance.

Wealth Isn't A Dirty Word
Some parts of the political spectrum treat wealth like it's something to be ashamed of. I don't buy that.

The economy grows because people build wealth, and that should be celebrated, not sneered at.

Think about the businesses that have come out of this country, Xero, Rocket Lab, Partners Life being sold to a Japanese firm for over a billion dollars. Rocket Lab in particular blows my mind, a kid growing up here thinking about NASA sending people to the moon, and now we're launching rockets out of New Zealand.

Every one of those businesses started with someone taking a risk, often with nothing, in the same way Amazon famously started out of a garage.

We only ever see the tip of the iceberg with these companies and forget they create entire micro-economies of jobs around them. None of the policies currently on the table are doing much to encourage more of that, it's tinkering at the edges rather than genuinely unlocking growth.

A Bit Of Respect For The Process
Whatever you think of individual politicians, there's something to admire in the work ethic most of them show during a campaign, up early, working late, giving up weekends, knocking on doors and putting themselves out there to be heckled or ignored.

That's not an easy gig, regardless of which colour you associate with.

There's also a genuine opportunity for business owners here that I think gets missed.

I heard directly from an MP essentially saying, you're the ones who could help us make better decisions, but you never actually come and tell us what's going on for you.

We had our own experience of this bumping into an MP at Auckland Airport, having a genuinely good conversation about small business, and walking away feeling like it had actually landed somewhere useful.

If you've got real issues affecting your business, your local MP is more approachable than most people assume, but only if you actually make the effort to have that conversation.

The Danger Is The Story You Tell Yourself
I saw a stat shared recently showing New Zealand ranks in the top five easiest countries in the world to do business.

The comments underneath were almost universally negative, accusations of fake news, people saying it's obviously wrong, without a shred of evidence to back that up.

My guess is most of those commenters have never actually run a business.

The truth is nobody is stopping you from starting one here. Yes, there are rules depending on your industry, and yes, agencies will occasionally step in, but in my experience they tend to educate rather than punish, which isn't the case everywhere in the world.

We see business owners every week who dismantle the "it can't be done" narrative simply by doing it.

So ask yourself, where is your story about the economy coming from, and is that story actually getting you closer to the future you want? Because at the end of the day, this is your business, your asset, and your decision to keep building it, regardless of who's sitting in the Beehive come November.

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This article is based on insights from the Next Advisory podcast, where Luke and Phil help New Zealand business owners navigate economic challenges and build better businesses. Visit nextadvisory.nz to find out how we can help you.

Checkout more of our blog content at https://nextadvisory.nz/podcast