We Don't Have a Cost of Living Crisis. We Have a Cost of Indecision Crisis.

I say this to business owners all the time, and I'll keep saying it until it sinks in: the thing holding most SME owners back right now isn't the economy, it isn't interest rates, and it isn't inflation. It's indecision. And that indecision almost always comes from one place, a lack of confidence. And thats because we're not looking at our own data.

I see it constantly. Business owners sitting on a decision they know they need to make, but they're waiting for some external event to happen first before they'll act. The truth is, it usually needs to work the other way around. You take the action, and then things work themselves out.

Trust Your Gut, But Back It With Data

I'm a big fan of making decisions with my gut. But if I'm honest with myself, when I actually dig into why I made a call, it's usually backed by some form of data, even if I didn't consciously think of it that way at the time. The issue isn't gut versus data. It's that most of us don't know where to look for the data that would give us more confidence in the decisions we're already leaning toward.

And it's okay to admit you don't know where to start. I had someone say exactly that to me recently "I don't know how" and that's one of the most useful things a business owner can admit. Once you say it out loud, we can actually unpack it and give you a real answer.

The First Thing I Tell Every Business Owner: Build a Cash Flow Forecast

If there's one piece of advice I repeat more than any other, it's this. Understand what your cash flow is going to do in the future. I know people roll their eyes because I bang on about it so much, but I do it because it matters that much.

I ran a session recently where a business owner went from having nothing to a completed draft cash flow forecast in about 90 minutes. At the end, they said, "that wasn't that hard after all." And what I noticed was that once they had that clarity, they immediately knew what actions they needed to take next. That's the real value, it's not the spreadsheet itself, it's the confidence it gives you to move.

If you genuinely don't have the time, pay someone to do it. A few hundred dollars to a bookkeeper is money well spent. You don't need to overcomplicate it, it just needs to be a simple spreadsheet you can maintain going forward.

Your Past Customers Are Probably Sitting on Money You Haven't Collected

The second internal data source I always point people toward is their own sales history. I genuinely believe most businesses are sitting on around $100,000 of untapped income from past customers, they just haven't gone back and shaken the tree.

Here's what I tell people to do: go into your accounting software, pull your sales transactions for the last few years, and figure out who your best customers actually are. Then ask yourself, when did I last contact them? A phone call or a text might be all it takes.

If you want to take it further, dump that data into Claude or ChatGPT and ask it to show you the patterns. I did this recently on a project and asked which suburbs were driving the most revenue and why. It gave me a clear breakdown, and from there I could see where the real opportunity was, and where the risk was too.

Test Before You Commit

One of my favourite recent examples is a business owner who does van repairs and upholstery work. Instead of guessing where to expand next, they ran small Facebook ad campaigns in a couple of potential regions just to see where the inquiry was strongest before committing time and money to actually go there.

That's smarter than what most people do... Pick a place because they "heard" it would work, drive there, and find out the hard way that it doesn't. Testing means you might lose a bit of money in the region that doesn't convert, but that's the price of the data. It tells you exactly where to focus with real confidence instead of a guess.

Stop Letting Outliers Run Your Business

This one drives me a bit crazy. I see business owners get completely derailed by one bad review or one difficult client, even when the other 95% of their data says things are going really well. Sharesies' new debit card is a great example, go online and you'll find plenty of noisy complaints, but when you actually talk to Sharesies, it's one of the most successful products they've ever launched. Don't let the loudest 5% dictate decisions that the rest of your data doesn't support.

Data Builds Belief, and Belief Lets You Act

Data on its own isn't enough, you also need to believe you can act on what it's telling you. I see this constantly: a business owner knows a client isn't right for them anymore, but they hang onto them because they're scared to lose the revenue.

My advice is always the same, stop overvaluing the money and start valuing your time. That client might be draining an hour of your week that you could redirect into finding five better ones. 

Where I Land on All of This

Confidence isn't something you're born with, it's something you build, one decision at a time, using your own data. If you're already being prudent, already seeking advice, already willing to be challenged on your thinking, you're probably a lot more capable of making good decisions than you give yourself credit for.

So next time you're sitting on a decision, don't ask "should I do this?" Ask "what data am I not looking at that would make this obvious?"

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This article is based on insights from the Next Advisory podcast, where Luke and Phil help New Zealand business owners navigate economic challenges and build better businesses. Visit nextadvisory.nz to find out how we can help you.

Checkout more of our blog content at https://nextadvisory.nz/podcast